Brexit Update: Could England and Wales Leave the EU as a New Solution?
As the Brexit deadline of 29 March 2019 approaches, the UK government is struggling to find a way to implement the result of the 2016 referendum, which narrowly favored leaving the European Union (EU). Despite months of negotiation with the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed withdrawal agreement was overwhelmingly rejected by parliament on 15 January, raising the chances of a no-deal Brexit that many fear would harm the UK economy, security, and social cohesion. Amid this political crisis, a new idea has emerged: what if only England and Wales left the EU, while Scotland and Northern Ireland remained in it?
This idea was suggested by a Dutch historian and political commentator, Luuk van Middelaar, in a column for the Financial Times on 10 January. Van Middelaar argued that the existing divisions within the UK, especially between the English and the non-English regions, made it unlikely that a coherent and sustainable Brexit plan could emerge from Westminster. However, he also recognized that the UK was not a homogeneous entity, and that different parts of it had different relationships with the EU and different preferences for their future. By focusing on England and Wales, which voted more strongly for Brexit than Scotland and Northern Ireland, van Middelaar proposed a "reverse Greenland" solution, referring to the case in which Greenland chose to leave the EU but Denmark remained a member.
How would this idea work in practice, and what are its advantages and disadvantages? Let's explore some possible answers, based on the current situation and the potential scenarios.
Advantages of leaving the EU for England and Wales alone:
- Control over immigration: One of the main reasons why many British voters supported Brexit was the desire to reduce the inflow of EU migrants, who can live and work in the UK without requiring a visa or a work permit. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could regain control over their borders and decide who to let in or out. This could help address some of the social and economic concerns that have fueled anti-immigrant sentiment in those regions.
- Sovereignty and flexibility: Another argument for Brexit was the claim that the EU was too bureaucratic, intrusive, and undemocratic. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could escape from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, the Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, and other EU rules and regulations that they might find burdensome or incompatible with their interests. This could also give them more leverage in negotiating trade deals with non-EU countries, or customizing their own policies to suit their needs and preferences.
- Financial gains: A third reason for Brexit was the belief that the UK paid too much money to the EU and received too little benefits from it. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could save billions of pounds each year, which could be used to fund their own public services, such as the National Health Service, education, or infrastructure. This could also reduce the pressure on taxpayers and businesses to contribute to the EU budget, or to comply with EU rules for taxation and competition.
- National identity: A fourth motive for Brexit was the sense of pride and patriotism that many British people attach to their national heritage and culture. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could reaffirm their distinctiveness and assert their autonomy, without being part of a supra-national entity that dilutes their identity and promotes multiculturalism. This could appeal to many English and Welsh voters who feel neglected or resentful towards the political elites that have ignored or belittled their concerns.
Disadvantages of leaving the EU for England and Wales alone:
- Economic costs: One of the main risks of Brexit, especially a no-deal Brexit, is the potential negative impact on the UK economy and trade. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could face higher tariffs, customs checks, and barriers to accessing the EU single market, which accounts for about 45% of their exports and imports. This could hurt many industries, such as agriculture, manufacturing, finance, and services, and lead to job losses, inflation, and recession. This could also affect the availability and quality of goods and services that UK consumers rely on, from medicines to food to transport.
- Security and defense: Another concern of Brexit, especially for the UK's allies and partners, is the weakening of its role and influence in international affairs. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could lose access to the EU's foreign policy mechanisms, defense programs, and intelligence sharing, which enhance their capabilities and effectiveness in responding to common threats and challenges, such as terrorism, cybercrime, migration, climate change, or pandemics. This could also create new divisions and tensions between the UK and other EU Member States, or between the UK and the US, which may see Brexit as a sign of isolationism and instability.
- Territorial integrity: A third challenge of Brexit, especially for the UK itself, is the risk of further disintegration and instability. By leaving the EU, England and Wales could fuel the demands of Scottish and Northern Irish nationalists, who voted mainly against Brexit and want to stay in the EU or pursue independence from the UK. This could trigger new referendums or elections that could reshape the UK's constitutional and political landscape, and reshape the balance of power and representation between its regions. This could also undermine the fragile peace process in Northern Ireland, which depends on the free movement of people and goods across the Irish border, and which risks being resurrected by a hard Brexit.
Conclusion:
The idea of having only England and Wales leave the EU, while Scotland and Northern Ireland remain in it, is an intriguing possibility that reflects the complexities and ambiguities of the UK's identity and aspirations. However, it is also a highly contentious and uncertain path that poses many challenges and risks to both the internal cohesion of the UK and the external relations with the EU and other partners. Therefore, although it may be too late to implement this solution in the current Brexit negotiations, it may still be worth exploring as a long-term option that respects the diversity and divergent views of the UK's four nations. Who knows, maybe it will inspire other creative solutions that break the impasse and generate more positive outcomes for all.
Keywords: Brexit, England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, EU, withdrawal, referendum, solution, advantages, disadvantages, territorial integrity, sovereignty, flexibility, identity, nationalism, immigration, economics, security, defense.
References:
https://www.ft.com/content/3cd899d2-1429-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/11/england-leave-eu-scotland-northern-ireland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46885828
https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/17/scotlands-first-minister-says-corbyn-blocked-plan-to-stop-no-deal-brexit
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/01/brexit-is-make-or-break-for-northern-ireland-backstop/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boom-time-for-zac-why-do-few-glock-owners-ever-use-them-and-more-lectures-q82q87nqf?shareToken=7e47e1dc894c015364c8d68d54eb2a5e